*Article courtesy of the Bank of Canada

The Bank of Canada today held its target for the overnight rate at 2.25%, with the Bank Rate at 2.5% and the deposit rate at 2.20%.

The war in the Middle East has increased volatility in global energy prices and financial markets, and heightened the risks to the global economy. The breadth and duration of the conflict, and hence its economic impacts, are highly uncertain.

Prior to the war, the global economy was on pace to grow at around 3%, as expected in the January Monetary Policy Report (MPR). Economic growth in the United States has moderated but remains solid, driven by consumption and strong AI-related investment. US inflation remains above target and has evolved largely as expected. In the euro area, domestic demand is supporting growth while exports have contracted. China’s economy continues to be boosted by strength in exports, but domestic demand remains weak.

Since the outbreak of the conflict in the Middle East, global oil and natural gas prices have risen sharply, and this will boost global inflation in the near-term. In addition to energy supply disruptions, transportation bottlenecks stemming from the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz could impact the supply of other commodities, such as fertilizer. Financial conditions have tightened from accommodative levels. Global bond yields have risen, equity market prices have declined, and credit spreads have widened. The Canada-US dollar exchange rate has remained relatively stable.

After expanding by 2.4% in the third quarter of last year, GDP in Canada contracted 0.6% in the fourth quarter. This was weaker than expected at the time of the January MPR, but mainly because of a larger-than-expected drawdown in inventories. Domestic demand grew by more than 2% due to strength in consumer and government spending, even as housing markets remained weak.

We continue to expect the Canadian economy to grow modestly as it adjusts to US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, but recent data suggest that near-term economic growth will be weaker than anticipated in January. The labour market remains soft. Employment gains in the fourth quarter of 2025 were largely reversed in the first two months of 2026, and the unemployment rate rose to 6.7% in February. Looking through the volatility, recent data also suggest ongoing weakness in exports. It’s too early to assess the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on growth in Canada.

CPI inflation eased further to 1.8% in February, down from 2.3% in January. CPI inflation excluding changes in indirect taxes as well as core inflation measures have also come down and are all close to 2%. Food inflation slowed in February but remains elevated. The sharp increase in global energy prices has led to increases in gasoline prices, and this will push up total inflation in the coming months.

Against this overall backdrop, Governing Council decided to maintain the policy rate at 2.25%. With recent data pointing to weaker economic activity and uncertainty elevated, risks to growth look tilted to the downside. At the same time, inflation risks have gone up due to higher energy prices. We will continue to assess the impact of US tariffs and trade policy uncertainty, and how the Canadian economy is adjusting. We are also monitoring the unfolding conflict in the Middle East closely and assessing its impact on growth and inflation. As the outlook evolves, we stand ready to respond as needed. The Bank is committed to ensuring that Canadians continue to have confidence in price stability through this period of global upheaval.

Information note

The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is April 29, 2026. The Bank’s next MPR will be released at the same time.

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The coming months are expected to mark one of the largest mortgage renewal waves Canada has seen in decades, and for many homeowners, the outcome will depend on how early they start planning. According to Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation, about 1.15 million mortgages are set to renew this year, representing roughly 60% of all outstanding mortgages. 

Many of those mortgages were originally set up when interest rates were much lower. As a result, renewal is top of mind for a lot of homeowners right now, especially those trying to understand what their next payment might look like.

That’s why timing matters. Renewal is one of the few moments when you can make changes to your mortgage without penalty, and starting early can make the process far less stressful than waiting until the last minute.

Most lenders now send renewal notices several months before maturity, and in some cases up to six months in advance. While that may seem early, it creates an opportunity. The more time you have, the more flexibility you may have to review your options carefully rather than feeling rushed into a decision. Even if nothing changes, having a plan in place early removes uncertainty and puts you back in control.

Understanding payment shock and your options

One of the biggest concerns at renewal right now is payment shock, the increase in monthly payments that comes with higher interest rates. Before making any decisions, it helps to see the numbers clearly. What would your payment look like at today’s rates, and how does that fit into your budget?

If the new payment feels tight, there may be ways to help ease the transition. Extending your amortization can lower your monthly payment by spreading it over a longer period. While this can increase interest costs over time, it can provide short-term breathing room.

For homeowners with sufficient equity, refinancing at renewal may also be worth exploring. In some cases, refinancing can help consolidate higher-interest debt, improve cash flow, or restructure your mortgage so it better fits your current situation. These options aren’t right for everyone, but they’re worth reviewing before locking into a new term.

Why renewal is more than just the rate

At renewal, it’s natural to focus on the rate. But mortgage features such as prepayment options, penalties and portability can all affect how well your mortgage works over the next few years. In some situations, a slightly higher rate with better flexibility can offer more peace of mind.

Renewal is also a chance to reset and make sure your mortgage still fits your goals. Starting early gives you time to ask questions, explore options, and move forward with confidence.

*Article courtesy of
Sean Rampersaud - Mortgage Associate
(780) 278-4847
sean.rampersaud@mortgagegroup.com

Mortgage renewals don’t have to feel overwhelming. In fact, they can be a great opportunity to reassess your financial picture and make sure your mortgage is still working for you.

Taking some time to review your numbers, current rates, and available options can bring clarity and help you make the best decision moving forward.

If your mortgage is coming up for renewal this year, we’d be happy to walk through everything with you and provide a personalized review so you can move forward with confidence.

One important thing to keep in mind is not to leave it until the last minute or allow your mortgage to automatically renew with your current lender, as that can sometimes mean missing out on better options.

If you'd like guidance or simply want to understand what your renewal could look like, feel free to reach out anytime and we’d be happy to connect you with some great lender options.