Housing conditions in Calgary continue to shift toward balanced territory in 2026 as slowing migration is met with rising supply driven by a construction boom over the past three years.
Resale sales were expected to slow this year due to shifts in migration patterns. However, the pullback has been slightly stronger than expected because of steeper declines in sales of higher-density homes, as increased choice in both the rental and new-home markets is weighing on resale activity. Rising supply across rental, new-home and resale segments is pushing the resale market toward the higher end of balanced conditions, limiting the typical seasonal boost in home prices.
Most of the shift is occurring in apartment-style homes, driven by changes in both demand and supply. Record-high apartment-style starts have increased rental supply, as a dramatic drop in international migration has slowed demand from rentals just as new construction has ramped up. This is increasing vacancy rates, weighing on rents and causing many landlords to offer incentives to keep existing renters.
This has slowed demand from existing renters, along with demand from investors, contributing to a steep pullback in apartment sales activity. At the same time, potential buyers have more choice in both the new-home and resale markets for apartment and row-style homes, having a larger impact on resale activity. The result is the apartment condominium sector shifting to favour buyers and driving further price declines. While price declines were expected this year, the pace of decline is currently exceeding expectations and there was not a seasonal lift during the spring market.
On the other end of the spectrum is the detached market. While sales have fallen this year, inventory levels have also declined and conditions remain at the lower end of the balanced scale, with some areas of Calgary experiencing seller’s market conditions. Construction of detached homes has not experienced a boost, limiting the impact of new homes on resale detached home prices. While resale prices have slowed in some pockets of the market, it is mostly isolated to areas where there is competing supply in similarly price ranges in the new-home market. This has mostly occurred in the north and south ends of the city and surrounding areas like Airdrie, Cochrane and Chestermere.
While shifts are occurring in our market, conditions are faring better than some of the other large cities in the country. Much of this is related to the slower but still positive migration into the city and continued job growth. Moving forward, stable economic conditions are expected to support demand that is more aligned with longer-term trends.
Challenges in the apartment condominium sector are expected to persist into 2027, while lower-density properties are expected to see stability in pricing over the remainder of 2026. While there is a sense of cautious optimism regarding the Alberta economy, much of the prospects for the economy and the housing sector will depend on how business investment evolves over the next year. This may not result in a change in the 2026 housing market.
However, should progress be made on several proposed initiatives later this year, housing growth prospects will be stronger moving into 2027.
