Supply Levels Improve In January

Following three consecutive years of limited supply choice, inventory levels in January rose to 3,639 units. While the 70 per cent year-over-year gain is significant, inventory levels remain lower than the over 4,000 units we would typically see in January. Inventories rose across all property types, with some of the largest gains driven by apartment-style condominiums.

“Supply levels are expected to improve this year, contributing to more balanced conditions and slower price growth,” said Ann-Marie Lurie, Chief Economist at CREB®. “However, the adjustment in supply is not equal amongst all property types. Compared with sales, we continue to see persistently tight conditions for detached, semi-detached and row properties while apartment condominiums show signs of excess supply for higher priced units.”

Citywide, the months of supply reached 2.5 months in January, an improvement over the one month of supply reported last year, but it is still considered low for a winter month. The month of supply ranged from under two months for semi-detached properties to 3.5 months for apartment-style units.

Rising supply resulted from a boost in new listings compared to sales. New listings rose to 2,896 units in January, compared to 1,451 sales. Sales in January were down by 12 per cent compared to last year. However, even with a pullback in sales, levels remained nearly 30 per cent higher than levels typically recorded in January.

The total residential benchmark price in January was $583,000, which is relatively stable compared to levels reported at the end of last year and nearly three per cent higher than last January. Price growth ranged across districts within the city as well as property types.

Detached

Driven by gains from homes priced above $600,000, new listings reached 1,228 units in January, which is 29 per cent higher than last year. At the same time, sales activity slowed to 674 units, which brought levels in line with long-term trends. The improvement in new listings relative to sales did help support inventory gains. However, the 1,448 units in inventory are still nearly 27 per cent lower than levels we traditionally see in January, and the months of supply remained relatively low at just over two months.

While conditions are not as tight as last year, there is some variation within the city districts as more balanced conditions are taking shape in the City Centre and North East districts. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price was $750,800, slightly higher than last month and seven per cent higher than last January. On a seasonally adjusted basis, prices have remained relatively stable since the second half of last year.

Semi-Detached

Like other property types, gains in new listings relative to sales helped support some gains in inventory levels. While the semi-detached sector represents a relatively small share of activity in our market, sales in January did improve over last year, keeping the months of supply just below two months. Within the city, there is some significant variation, as the City Centre, North East, and West districts are all reporting near or above three months of supply, while all other districts have less than two months of supply.

The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $673,600, slightly lower than last month but over eight per cent higher than levels reported last January. The districts with higher months of supply also reported some modest monthly price declines, offsetting stable to modest gains in the North, North West, South, South East, and East districts.

Row

January reported a boost in new listings compared to sales activity. This caused inventory levels to rise to 589 units, more than double the near-record low levels reported last January. The recent rise in new listings has helped bring inventories to levels that are more consistent with long-term trends. At the same time, the months of supply also improved, pushing above two months, a trend that started to play out over the second half of last year.

Improving supply relative to sales has taken some of the pressure off home prices, but not consistently across the city. Citywide, the unadjusted benchmark price was $444.900, slightly lower than last month and nearly five per cent higher than last year. While prices are higher than last year across all districts, the largest monthly adjustment occurred in the North East district.

Apartment Condominium

Sales in January slowed to 370 units over last year's record high for the month. At the same time, new listings reached 922 units, a new high for January. The gain in new listings relative to sales caused inventories to rise to 1,2,95 units. While sales have remained relatively strong, the gain in supply has pushed the months of supply up to 3.5 months. This is much higher than the levels seen over the past three years but nowhere near the nine months reported in January prior to the pandemic.

Improved supply choice has weighed on prices over the past five months. In January, the unadjusted benchmark price was $331,400, slightly lower than last month but still five per cent higher than last year's levels. Like other property types, the level of adjustment varies across the city. The largest monthly declines occurred in the North, West and South districts.

REGIONAL MARKET FACTS

Airdrie

Sales in January remained in line with levels reported last month and last year, which were well above long-term trends. However, thanks to a boost in new listings, inventory levels improved, and the months of supply remained above two months for the fifth consecutive month. While 2.6 months of supply is below historical trends for Airdrie, it is a significant improvement over the under two months that has persisted since 2021. More supply in the resale and new home markets has taken some of the pressure off home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $537,300, down over last month but nearly four per cent higher than last year.

Cochrane

Like other areas, Cochrane is seeing improved levels of new listings and inventories in their market. There were 104 new listings in January compared to 71 sales, and inventories pushed up to 156 units. January inventory levels are better than levels reported over the past three years but still fall short of long-term trends for the month. Like Airdrie, it has been the fifth consecutive month with the months of supply above two months, easing the upward pressure on home prices. The unadjusted benchmark price in January was $565,900, down over last month but nearly five per cent higher than last January.

Okotoks

Unlike Cochrane and Airdrie, new listings in Okotoks remained relatively low compared to last year. While the pullback in sales did help support some improvements in inventory levels, the 68 units available in January are still half the levels that were available in January prior to the pandemic. Limited supply has driven much of the price gains in this market since 2021. As of January, the unadjusted benchmark price was $614,900, a slight gain over last month and nearly five per cent higher than last year.

Posted by Billy Peshke on February 4th, 2025

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